Wild Problems
A Guide to the Decisions That Define Us
Book Edition Details
Summary
Life's big questions rarely come with straightforward answers, and that's exactly what makes them so tantalizing. In "Wild Problems," Russ Roberts, the cherished voice behind EconTalk, challenges our obsession with data-driven decision-making. Instead of crunching numbers, he invites us to embrace the enigma of choices that define our existence—like love, family, and purpose. Drawing wisdom from the creative minds of history, Roberts crafts a roadmap for navigating the uncertainties of life. He urges readers to shift focus from pursuing happiness to understanding our true selves. This book dares you to leap into the unknown, savoring the mysteries and intricacies that algorithms can't decipher, ultimately transforming life from a mere puzzle to a profound experience.
Introduction
Human beings face two fundamentally different types of problems throughout their lives. Some decisions yield to data, analysis, and rational calculation—these are the "tame" problems that respond well to scientific methods and algorithmic approaches. But the most consequential choices we make—whether to marry, have children, change careers, or relocate—belong to an entirely different category. These "wild problems" resist the very tools that serve us so well in other domains of life. The conventional wisdom suggests that rational decision-making requires weighing costs and benefits, gathering more information, and optimizing outcomes. Yet when applied to life's biggest decisions, this approach often leads us astray. The fundamental challenge lies not in our inability to calculate accurately, but in the nature of these decisions themselves. We cannot predict how we will change through the experience of making them, nor can we fully anticipate what aspects of our future selves will matter most. The exploration ahead reveals why our deepest choices cannot be reduced to utilitarian calculations and why flourishing—rather than happiness—provides a more reliable compass for navigating uncertainty. Through examining historical examples, philosophical insights, and practical strategies, we will discover alternative frameworks for approaching decisions that define who we are and who we might become.
The Illusion of Rational Decision-Making for Life's Wild Problems
Charles Darwin faced a quintessential wild problem in 1838 when contemplating marriage. Like any good scientist, he approached the decision analytically, creating detailed lists of costs and benefits. His calculations included practical considerations: companionship and household management versus loss of autonomy and reduced time for scientific work. Yet despite his meticulous analysis, Darwin ultimately dismissed his own rational framework, writing "Marry—Marry—Marry Q.E.D." at the bottom of his notes. Darwin's experience illustrates the fundamental limitation of cost-benefit analysis when applied to transformative life decisions. The problem lies not in the quality of the analysis but in the impossibility of accurately predicting what matters. Before experiencing marriage or parenthood, we cannot truly comprehend their inner dimensions. We focus on observable externalities—financial costs, time constraints, lifestyle changes—while remaining blind to the profound ways these choices reshape our identity and values. The vampire metaphor captures this predicament perfectly. Becoming a vampire represents any irreversible choice that fundamentally alters who we are and what we care about. The pre-vampire self cannot accurately evaluate the post-vampire experience because the transformation changes the very criteria by which we judge satisfaction and meaning. Similarly, the unmarried person cannot fully grasp what it means to be a spouse, nor can the childless individual comprehend parenthood's texture. This creates what philosophers call the problem of transformative experience. We must choose between alternatives we cannot fully understand, knowing that our choice will change us in ways that make our current preferences unreliable guides. The rational actor model breaks down because there is no stable self to maximize utility for—the self that makes the decision differs fundamentally from the self that lives with its consequences.
Beyond Utility: Why Flourishing Matters More Than Happiness
The utilitarian approach to decision-making assumes that human satisfaction can be reduced to pleasurable experiences minus painful ones. This narrow conception treats life as an extended stay at an amusement park where the goal is accumulating the maximum number of positive sensations. Yet this framework fails to capture what most people actually care about when facing consequential choices. John Stuart Mill's famous distinction illuminates this inadequacy: "It is better to be a human being dissatisfied than a pig satisfied; better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied." Mill recognizes that human flourishing encompasses more than the mere accumulation of pleasant experiences. We care about purpose, meaning, dignity, and integrity—aspects of life that transcend moment-to-moment feelings and shape our entire existence. Flourishing differs both quantitatively and qualitatively from utilitarian pleasure. While daily experiences come and go, flourishing creates persistent states of being that overlay and elevate everything else we encounter. Being a parent, for instance, is not simply a series of pleasant and unpleasant child-related experiences. It represents a fundamental identity that transforms how we see ourselves and move through the world. Consider the decision to donate a kidney to a stranger, maintain a difficult friendship, or pursue meaningful work at lower pay. These choices often involve accepting greater immediate costs for the sake of something larger than personal comfort. They reflect our desire to become certain kinds of people rather than merely to feel good. The narrow utilitarian calculus cannot account for why someone would voluntarily choose a path that promises more suffering than pleasure, yet such choices often represent our finest moments and deepest sources of meaning.
Practical Wisdom: Embracing Uncertainty and Privileging Principles
When facing wild problems, the search for certainty becomes counterproductive. Like searching for lost keys under a streetlight simply because the visibility is better there, we focus on measurable factors while ignoring the crucial elements that remain in shadows. Practical wisdom begins with acknowledging the fundamental uncertainty surrounding transformative choices and developing strategies that work within this constraint rather than against it. Bill Belichick's approach to the NFL Draft provides an instructive model. Despite extensive analysis of college players, Belichick understands that predicting professional success remains largely impossible. Rather than perfecting his evaluation process, he embraces optionality—trading high draft picks for multiple lower selections, thereby increasing his chances of discovering talent. He focuses less on making the "right" choice and more on creating conditions where good choices can emerge. This optionality principle extends beyond sports to life's major decisions. Instead of agonizing over whether a particular choice is optimal, we can structure decisions to preserve flexibility and minimize irreversible commitments where possible. Date before marrying. Try different careers before committing. Visit potential homes before relocating. The goal is not to avoid all mistakes—an impossible standard—but to create space for course corrections as new information emerges. The complementary strategy involves privileging principles over narrow self-interest when stakes are highest. Ethical dilemmas reveal this most clearly: returning a lost wallet costs us personally but preserves our integrity. Principles provide stable ground when utilitarian calculations become impossible or misleading. They represent commitments to certain kinds of identity that transcend temporary costs and benefits. By establishing what we stand for in advance, we reduce the psychological burden of decision-making while staying true to our deepest values.
Living as Art: Optionality, Aspiration, and the Unscripted Life
The artistic process offers a powerful metaphor for approaching wild problems. Elizabeth Bishop's masterpiece "One Art" required seventeen drafts before reaching its final form. The poem emerged through creation rather than following a predetermined blueprint. Bishop discovered what she wanted to say in the process of saying it, allowing the work to develop organically while maintaining artistic standards and vision. Living like an artist means remaining open to discovery about ourselves and the world around us. Rather than treating life as a predetermined script to execute, we can approach it as an improvisation that unfolds through engagement. This requires balancing planning with spontaneity, structure with flexibility, intention with serendipity. We maintain direction while allowing for course corrections and unexpected developments. This perspective transforms how we view setbacks and surprises. Failed relationships or career changes are not mistakes to regret but materials for ongoing creation. Like a sculptor working with marble's natural grain rather than against it, we can work with life's contingencies rather than viewing them as obstacles to overcome. The goal shifts from controlling outcomes to responding creatively to whatever emerges. Aspiration plays a crucial role in this artistic approach to living. We can cultivate desires about our desires, choosing to become people who value different things than we currently do. The person who wants to develop musical appreciation can practice listening; the individual seeking greater generosity can begin giving more freely. Through repeated action, we gradually become who we aspire to be. This process requires patience and faith—trusting that consistent practice will eventually transform both our capabilities and our preferences.
Summary
The central insight emerging from this analysis challenges our deepest assumptions about rational choice. Life's most consequential decisions cannot be optimized through better information or more sophisticated analysis because they involve fundamental transformation of the decision-maker. The attempt to reduce wild problems to tame ones leads us away from what matters most: the question of what kind of person to become and how to live meaningfully within uncertainty. Rather than seeking happiness through utilitarian calculation, we can pursue flourishing through principled choices that honor both our current values and our aspirations for growth. This approach requires courage to act without certainty, wisdom to embrace optionality where possible, and faith that a life lived with integrity and openness to discovery will prove more satisfying than one spent in futile pursuit of optimal outcomes.
Related Books
Download PDF & EPUB
To save this Black List summary for later, download the free PDF and EPUB. You can print it out, or read offline at your convenience.
By Russell "Russ" Roberts
