The Coming Wave
Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
byMustafa Suleyman, Michael Bhaskar
Book Edition Details
Summary
Brace for impact: AI and other fast-developing technologies are reshaping our world. In The Coming Wave (2023), DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman offers an insider’s warning of unprecedented risks to global order—and how we might contain them. Explore the immense prosperity and existential threats as we navigate a future of engineered pathogens, autonomous weapons, and ubiquitous AI.
Introduction
Imagine waking up tomorrow to discover that the fundamental building blocks of reality—intelligence and life itself—have become as programmable as computer software. This isn't science fiction; it's the world we're rapidly entering. We stand at the threshold of what may be the most transformative technological revolution in human history, one driven by two extraordinary capabilities: artificial intelligence that can match and exceed human cognitive abilities, and synthetic biology that allows us to read, edit, and rewrite the code of life itself. These technologies promise to solve humanity's greatest challenges, from climate change to disease, while simultaneously threatening to overwhelm the political and social structures that have guided civilization for centuries. As we navigate this coming wave, we'll discover how these innovations emerged from obscure laboratories to become defining forces of our time, why they're proving nearly impossible to control once unleashed, and what their proliferation means for the future of democracy, governance, and human agency. The choices we make today about how to develop and deploy these technologies will determine whether they enhance human flourishing or fundamentally alter the balance of power in ways that could threaten our very survival.
The Rise of Programmable Intelligence and Life
The convergence of artificial intelligence and synthetic biology represents humanity's transition from passive observers of intelligence and life to active architects of both. These technologies share a remarkable characteristic: they operate in the realm of information, whether it's the patterns that constitute intelligence or the genetic code that defines living organisms. This informational nature gives them an unprecedented ability to improve rapidly and spread widely, following exponential curves that make them fundamentally different from previous innovations. Artificial intelligence has evolved from struggling with basic pattern recognition to systems that can engage in sophisticated reasoning, creative problem-solving, and autonomous decision-making. Modern AI systems like large language models have consumed vast amounts of human knowledge, giving them capabilities that span from writing poetry to discovering scientific insights. What makes this particularly remarkable is the generality of these systems—unlike previous technologies that solved specific problems, AI can potentially perform any cognitive task, making it a truly general-purpose technology. Synthetic biology operates on similar principles but focuses on the machinery of life itself. Scientists can now read genetic sequences, edit them with precision using tools like CRISPR, and even synthesize entirely new biological systems from scratch. This has created a design-build-test cycle for living systems, similar to software development but operating on the fundamental building blocks of biology. Researchers can design genetic circuits on computers, synthesize the corresponding DNA, and test their creations in living cells within increasingly compressed timeframes. The fusion of these technologies creates powerful synergies that amplify their individual capabilities. AI systems are being used to design new proteins, predict genetic modifications, and automate biological experiments, while biological systems are being engineered to perform computational tasks. Projects like AlphaFold have revolutionized protein structure prediction, solving in months what had puzzled scientists for decades. This convergence suggests a future where the boundary between digital and biological systems becomes increasingly blurred, creating possibilities we're only beginning to imagine.
Why These Technologies Are Impossible to Contain
The coming wave possesses four distinctive characteristics that make traditional approaches to technological control inadequate. Understanding these features reveals why the technologies that could solve our greatest challenges might also prove impossible to govern through conventional means. The first characteristic is asymmetric impact—the ability of small actors to achieve disproportionately large effects. Unlike previous technologies that required substantial infrastructure and resources to cause significant damage, AI and synthetic biology tools are becoming increasingly accessible. A small team with the right knowledge could potentially create systems that impact millions of lives, fundamentally altering the risk landscape by making it impossible to monitor every potential threat. The second feature is hyper-evolution—an unprecedented rate of improvement that outpaces traditional regulatory frameworks. AI systems can now improve themselves through learning, while biological systems can be rapidly redesigned and tested. This acceleration creates an ever-widening gap between technological capabilities and governance structures, as defensive measures struggle to keep pace with advancing possibilities. The third characteristic is omni-use capability—the same technology can be applied to countless different purposes, both beneficial and harmful. A powerful AI system designed for medical research could equally well be used for surveillance or warfare. Synthetic biology techniques developed for environmental cleanup could be repurposed to create biological weapons. This versatility makes it impossible to regulate specific applications without constraining entire fields of beneficial development. The fourth and perhaps most concerning feature is increasing autonomy. These technologies are moving beyond being mere tools that require constant human oversight. AI systems can operate independently for extended periods, making decisions and taking actions without human intervention. Synthetic organisms, once released, can evolve and adapt on their own. This autonomy means that even well-intentioned deployments could lead to unintended consequences that spiral beyond human control, creating risks that persist long after their initial release.
How Technology Threatens Democratic Governance
The coming wave presents unprecedented challenges to democratic institutions and the nation-state system that has organized human civilization for centuries. These technologies act as "fragility amplifiers," exploiting existing weaknesses in governance structures while simultaneously enabling new forms of control that threaten the foundations of democratic society. Traditional state power rested on the ability to control information, maintain a monopoly on violence, and regulate economic activity within defined borders. However, the coming wave undermines each of these pillars simultaneously. Information flows freely across digital networks, non-state actors can acquire powerful capabilities through accessible technologies, and economic value is increasingly created in virtual spaces that exist beyond any single jurisdiction. When AI can outperform human bureaucrats and synthetic biology allows individuals to create new organisms in garage laboratories, traditional tools of statecraft become obsolete. The democratization of destructive capabilities poses particularly acute challenges. Small groups or even individuals can now access tools that were once the exclusive domain of nation-states, whether through cyberweapons, engineered pathogens, or autonomous systems. This asymmetric empowerment creates security challenges that existing institutions are poorly equipped to handle, as the traditional model of deterrence breaks down when potential threats can emerge from anywhere. Perhaps most troubling is how these technologies enable unprecedented levels of surveillance and social control while simultaneously disrupting the economic foundations of democratic societies. AI-powered monitoring systems create the technical infrastructure for totalitarian governance on a scale previously impossible, while automation threatens to eliminate jobs across entire sectors of the economy. The concentration of technological capabilities in the hands of a few large corporations creates new centers of power that operate largely outside democratic oversight. The result is a world where nation-states find themselves squeezed between empowered individuals who can cause massive harm and powerful corporations that control critical capabilities. This creates a crisis of legitimacy for democratic institutions, as they struggle to provide security and stability while maintaining the freedoms and rights that define democratic society.
Building Defenses for Humanity's Technological Future
Despite the formidable challenges, maintaining meaningful human control over transformative technologies remains possible through a comprehensive, multi-layered approach. Like building defenses against a natural disaster, no single intervention will suffice, but a coordinated system of safeguards can channel technological power while protecting human values and agency. The first layer involves embedding safety measures directly into the technologies themselves. This means developing AI systems with robust shutdown capabilities, creating biological containment systems that prevent engineered organisms from surviving outside controlled environments, and building cryptographic safeguards that prevent unauthorized copying or modification of dangerous capabilities. We need massive investment in safety research, with requirements that companies dedicate substantial resources to security measures alongside capability development. The second layer focuses on monitoring and verification through comprehensive oversight systems. Global institutions must be established to inspect and test new technologies before deployment, similar to how we regulate nuclear facilities or pharmaceutical drugs. This includes developing AI systems specifically designed to monitor other AI systems, creating secure screening networks that can detect dangerous genetic sequences, and establishing international protocols for sharing information about emerging risks. The third layer leverages economic and regulatory tools to shape technological development. Export controls and trade measures can limit access to critical technologies, licensing requirements can govern the most powerful systems, and tax structures can ensure that technological benefits are shared broadly while funding necessary oversight institutions. These measures must be coordinated internationally to prevent dangerous capabilities from simply migrating to less regulated jurisdictions. The final layer requires building a global movement that includes technologists, policymakers, and citizens working together to ensure these technologies serve human flourishing. This means fostering a culture of responsibility within the technology industry, creating new forms of international cooperation that can address truly global challenges, and engaging the public in decisions about technological development and deployment. Success requires unprecedented coordination across all levels of society, but the alternative—losing control of our technological future—represents an unacceptable risk to human civilization.
Summary
The central insight of this exploration is that we are entering an era where the technologies we create may ultimately prove more powerful than the institutions we've built to govern them, forcing humanity to confront the fundamental question of whether we can maintain meaningful control over the tools that will define our future. The coming wave of AI and synthetic biology represents a double-edged revolution that could either solve our greatest challenges or undermine the very foundations of human agency, depending on the choices we make in the critical years ahead. While the forces driving technological proliferation seem unstoppable, the window for shaping these technologies to serve human values rather than replace human judgment remains open, but only if we act with unprecedented urgency and coordination. How will we balance the imperative for innovation with the necessity of safety, and can democratic societies adapt quickly enough to govern technologies that evolve faster than our institutions? The answers to these questions will determine whether the coming wave lifts humanity to new heights of prosperity and capability or sweeps away the foundations of civilization as we know it.
By Mustafa Suleyman
